✔️ 2022-08-22 05:39:40 – Paris/France.
A shortwave trough will cross the region over the next few days. Southerly surface winds will continue to increase the advection of warm air and moisture, which will increase environmental instability. Weak upper-level divergence will help enhance the uplift, especially during the daytime hours of the next few days. PW values are high around 2,2 to 2,4 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for SPC sounding climatology. Therefore, precipitation will be more efficient and produce higher precipitation rates in stronger storms. Looking at the patterns, chances of precipitation will be elevated daily over the next few days. POPs are currently forecast in the 70s and 80s. General model consensus supports a wetter forecast and due to the abundant moisture moving into the region over the next few days, PoPs are somewhat higher than NBM forecasts. Heavy local rain will be a daily concern over the next few days. We still don't see any indications of widespread flooding, but isolated flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying or vulnerable areas if a strong storm develops. In addition to the risk of precipitation, there will also be a risk of sub-severe gusty winds and frequent lightning within stronger thunderstorms.
Weak upper-level divergence, especially on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, will also help improve the upside environment. PW values are expected to remain elevated around 2,2 to 2,4 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for SPC sounding climatology. Therefore, the precipitation that does develop is likely to be more efficient and produce higher precipitation rates. Looking at the models, precipitation is expected daily thanks to shortwave and atmospheric conditions. Due to abundant moisture, uplift and weaker shear, local heavy rain will be a daily concern mid-week through week-end in stronger storms. It still doesn't appear to be a widespread flood hazard. But vulnerable areas will be at localized/isolated risk of flash flooding given the effectiveness of rainfall and warm rains. Additionally, high gusty winds and frequent lightning will be a concern during stronger storms towards the end of the week.
SOURCE: Reviews News
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